We at the Loon are not here to sugar coat anything. The stretch of golf between The Masters and The Players isn’t amazing for the viewers. Though the changes to the schedule and the increase in designated events has allowed us to continue to watch the top players perform. For anyone that hasn’t been paying attention, we’ve had winners not named Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler, however those guys are still dominating, securing top 10’s spot in any tournament they participate in. In other news, Jason Day is again a winner on the PGA Tour! Great to see a player like Day that has put in the work finally get a much deserved spot back on the podium. Will we actually pick any of these guys? That’s a question for later in the blog.
The PGA Championship (a major championship do not forget that) is being played at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester New York. It was originally a Donald Ross design that was redone by Andrew Greene to truly encapsulate the beauty of the course. Oak Hill will be no joke for the players with a yardage of 7,394 yards as a Par 70. The course is playing to a rating of 77.2 rating. What this really means to us at home is that it is going to be really fucking hard. An example to compare it to in your head is to picture your buddy with a 14 handicap, a guy who can hit it around the course but definitely finds a water hazard here and there (might find himself a cold beer from his bag as well). His 14 handicap turns into a 26 handicap at Oak Hill. Needless to say, everyone in the field will be tested by this tough, North Eastern course and it will be a treat for the fans to witness the carnage either in person or from their couch.
The difficulty of the course will not only provide the viewer with an entertaining experience but it also opens all sorts of doors betting wise. We can look for value in guys that are able to hit the fairway and tackle the long par 4s that Oak Hill offers. An example being 16, 17, and 18 all at around 500 yards. A ferocious closing stretch. This also can bring up older names, veterans that are able to maneuver around a course with more strategy than some of the younger guys that are used to winning birdie fests. It’s truly a great opportunity to dive into the model and make some money.
Before we get into the betting picks, there are a couple things to monitor this week…
- Jordan Spieth could complete the career Grand Slam. After a w/d last week due to injury, Jordan could still show up and be just the 6th player to complete this feat.
- WWRD. What will Rory do? I for one have no idea. Will he show up and take home a PGA Championship at a course where he is an honorary member? Will he shoot a 83? Either could happen.
- Lastly… does someone nut up or does this season continue to be the Rahm and Scheffler show. Yes, Brooks “contended” for a bit at The Masters, but I’m talking having a player go up to Jon Rahm and tell him that his butter fade stinks. A true taking of the throne (temporarily) from one of the top guys.
Now… into the picks.
The Picks:
Top 20:
Magz: Tyrell Hatton +130
There were other golfers to be tempted by but I couldn’t pass up plus money on Tyrell to finish in the top 20. Tyrell already has six top 10s this year. Not to mention he ranks 5th in strokes gained total on tour. All he has to do is contend and we cash here. I honestly expect him to finish in the top 10 but this is a bet to secure some safe units. Some fun money.
Beast: Sungjae Im +120
I know I know, the Loon bets on Sungjae every week. Don’t care, back to the well. Sungjae heads to the PGA on a hot streak with 7 Top 25’s in a row. Last week, he opted out of the AT&T Byron Nelson and instead flew home to South Korea to play in the KPGA’s Woori Financial Group Championship, he won in dramatic fashion on the 18th. This guy is an absolute work horse so the long flight back won’t phase him.
Sungjae is fantastic off the tee and typically plays really well at difficult courses. Historically speaking, Sungjae is great at Augusta but doesn’t have much to show for any of the other majors. I’m not too worried about it, the 25 year old is quickly becoming one of the best players in the world.
Top 10:
Magz: Xander Schauffele +170
This is an easy pick for me. Easier than most bets in major championships in all honestly. Xander has been absolutely dialed finsihing T10, 4th, and 2nd in his last three starts. Xander also ranks 4th in SG total on the entire PGA Tour. There is really no reason that I can see him making enough mistakes that he will not finish T8 or better. It is a great bet.
Beast: Brooks Koepka +170
Brooks Koepka, love him or hate him you can’t deny his success in majors. The 4-time major championship winner, including 2 wins previously at the PGA, is no stranger to the spotlight. After his T-2 finish in Augusta last month, there’s plenty of speculation about Mr. Koepka this week. I’m sure Brooks will be a popular DFS pick this week but for good reason. The setup this week rewards guys with power and distance, exactly how Brooks plays. Not sure we’ll see a LIV guy win a major quite yet, so give me Brooks Top 10 this week.
Tournament Matchups:
Magz: Collin Morikawa to beat Max Homa -147
I hate to do this to Max Homa but he really has not been able to perform well in majors so far. I would love for him to prove me wrong here and make a strong finish, but even with a top 10 he may not beat Morikawa! Seems like a pretty good option taking the two time major champion here.
Beast: Justin Rose to beat Matt Kuchar -120
Rose is another former major champion who seemingly has found the fountain of youth, winning at Pebble Beach earlier this season. He loves tough courses and always plays well at the PGA Championship.
Kuchar has missed the cut at the PGA Championship in 5 of his last 10 appearances. Although he has been in pretty good form this year, Justin Rose has been in better form.
Outright Winners:
Magz: Brooks Koepka +1600
I’ve got a gut feeling that Brooks is going to come out on top here. Brooks hits the ball far and straight, a great play at this course with the problems the rough brings. He has won major championships before, and he is coming off (basically) a strong performance at The Masters. I’m not necessarily rooting for the guy, but the course and stage suit his game.
Beast: Patrick Cantlay +2200
With a bit of research, I made this bet at the start of the season. According to my book, Cantlay is now +1600 to win the PGA Championship. This is such a boring pick, but I’m going to ride this one out (with Cantlay’s slow play, this could be a long ride). Nonetheless, Cantlay has all the tools in his bag to win a major championship. He’s one of the most consistent all around players on tour and he’s been striping the ball all season. Now, with Tiger Woods former caddie, Joe LaCava on the bag, he’s due for a breakthrough in a big way.
Season Stats:
Magz: Down 1.8 units on the year.
Beast: Down 7.3 units on the year.
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