What brings the most appeal to a golf tournament? The course? The players? The possible winnings? This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship and there will certainly be fireworks. As a whole, TPC Sawgrass is a beautiful course, with lots of water, a beautiful clubhouse that looks like it belongs in Spain, and one of the most popular holes in the world, the #17 Island Green. The Players is a tournament for THE PLAYERS, bringing together the best of the best (as long as they are still on this tour). It’s known as the fifth major for a reason, its the hardest event to win on the PGA Tour that is not a major. The strength of field is ridiculous and we’ve got the biggest purse of the year ($25 million!!!), fire up!!
The Course:
In terms of the course and the tournament, The Players at TPC Sawgrass has the prestige that rivals the likeness of Augusta and the Masters. As mentioned previously, this is “the fifth major” for a reason. Many golf fans, including myself, prefer The Players Championship over the PGA Championship. This all comes back to the prestige of the tournament. Year in and year out, viewers know exactly what they’re going to get from this tournament. The course is going to be in outstanding shape, playing extremely difficult and we know the worlds best will all be in attendance .
Last year Cam Smith took home the win at Sawgrass, and to be frank it will be a bummer not to have him out there to defend his title. However, since his victory he’s made his decision to leave the PGA tour and go make Billions of dollars playing putt putt against Patrick Reed. All we wish for Cam is that no lawsuits come his way once Patrick gets to the windmill hole and throws a tantrum.
In terms, of what it takes to win at TPC Sawgrass, strokes gained on approach is huge. Pete Dye designed the greens to punish people for missing them, using runoffs and plenty of bunkers to defend the hole. Players that can capitalize and keep the ball on the green or even better, close to the hole, will be best off. The iron play is more important than driving or putting this week because of the way Dye designed the course.
Every year, one of the greatest parts of this week is the 17th hole. Players are more than aware that this hole will eventually come along in their round and they’ll have to face the music, attempting to not splash one in the water. Check out these numbers, absolutely wild considering these guys are the best of the best!
As usual, we’re cheering for the course. Bring on the water balls!
For those who don’t have any skin in the game on tournament long bets, the 17th hole is a great opportunity to place a wager on whether or not each player in any given group will hit the island green or not. This is a fantastic way to add a little extra excitement to your week, and you might even fleece your buddy your betting with. Regardless if there is any money on the line or not, its a great bonus for anyone watching the tournament. Beast might want to attack this strategy based on his record on normal picks so far this season…
Of course we can’t write a blog about The Players championship without mentioning one of the greatest calls of all time. Here’s a flashback to the past:
Now, the reason you’re all here. THE PICKS.
Top 20:
Magz: Corey Conners +210
Before we even get started, I am repulsed by this pick. I’m throwing up typing it out. It’s gross. A man on the no bet list that just constantly causes the Loon problems and yet he is 3 for 3 at TPC Sawgrass! He played well up until Sunday last week! He’s another member of the villain list! Corey!
Magz: Cameron Young +125
Lot of people sniffing around this week, trying to figure out who to pick. I am going simple. Taking guys that don’t back down from a challenge (this does not fit Corey Conners at all). But it does fit Cam Young. Cameron ranks 12th in strokes gained off the tee and 14th in strokes gained approaching the green. He will be fine here.
Beast: Keegan Bradley +150
For the second consecutive week I’ll be betting on a player that I despise. It worked last week, we’ll see how it goes this time around. I’m not going to get into why I dislike Keegan, if you want to know please see our villain blog.
Keegan has finished inside the top 20 in 3 of his last 4 starts and inside the top 10 twice in the past 5 years at The Players. I can’t deny his history at Sawgrass and that’s why I’m taking him at +150 to land inside the top 20 once again this week.
Top 10:
Magz: Will Zalatoris +300
We’re big game hunting this week, it’s a big tournament, basically a major. Why wouldn’t I take Will Zalatoris to top 10? This is what he does, he shows up when events matter. Are the odds makers forgetting his performance in majors last year. Will ranks 13 in strokes gained tee to green. Top 10 at these odds all day. Also can we take a moment to notice Beast taking Rahm (clever) and then posting a HALF unit play. This guy.
Beast: Jon Rahm +125
Once again, Rahm is the favorite to win and I see no reason that he won’t be in contention on Sunday. Rahm has made the cut in each of his 5 previous appearances at The Players. Forget last week, with the way this season has gone there is no way Jon Rahm has back to back bad weeks. Rahm is a HORSE.
Beast: Shane Lowry +425 (1/2 unit)
So far the Irishman has been relatively quiet this season, but not because of his play; it’s because he really hasn’t played that many events in the states. He’s had success at Sawgrass before, finishing 8th in 2021 and 13th last year. He’s a guy who often finds himself at the top of the leaderboard when the conditions and competition get tough. I’m confident in the former major champion’s ability to perform when the lights are at their brightest.
Matchups:
Magz: Max Homa to beat Tony Finau -110
In the PGA Tour’s power rankings for this event, Max Homa was number 3 and Tony Finau was number 11… Why exactly is this even an option? I am not sure given Tony is only 2 for 6 here to even make the cut. Even without those facts, I will take Max and his ball striking every day of the week over Tony.
Beast: Sepp Straka to beat Patrick Rodgers -110
Sepp Straka is a proven winner in tough conditions (The Honda Classic, 2021). He’s in solid form as of late and his opponent in this matchup is not. Patrick Rodgers has made one cut in his last five events. I’m simply fading Mr. Rodgers here.
Outright Winners:
Magz: Collin Morikawa +2200
To be honest I felt really good about all of my picks other than this one. I do not feel like I have a great feel on who may actually win this week (my lean was Shane Lowry). But these odds on Collin are too good for this tournament that demands great iron play. Here we go Collin!
Beast: Scottie Scheffler +1000
I’m well aware Scottie hasn’t had the greatest success at Sawgrass, but that doesn’t change my mind. He’s playing as good as anyone in the world that’s not named Jon Rahm. Scottie hasn’t finished worse than T-12 in 2023. This is a tough setup that requires great iron play, I like Scottie’s chances this week.
Records YTD:
Magz: -0.8 units, broke even last week
Beast: -10.1 units, -0.7 last week
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