The Honda Classic may not have been the greatest field but it did turn out to be a great week. Fans had the honor of watching Chris Kirk, a frequently mentioned guy by golf bettors, take home an emotional win. It really is always good to see a guy like Chris that goes out there and works hard every week because he loves the game of golf, no quit in that guy.
Speaking of guys with no quit. Beast and Magz are here to stay. Magz secured 3.6 units last week, while giving absolutely no context to his picks. Have to give props to that performance. Beast is struggling a little bit, but we will let him touch on that at a later time.
Moving on to this week we have another STACKED field. It’s genuinely concerning the strength of some of these fields we are seeing on the PGA Tour. Though it is somewhat due to the antics of the prince of Saudi Arabia (Phil) and his sidekick that gets himself in tangly situations (Bryson “The Rope” Dechambeau), I am choosing to give the tour and these loyal guys all the credit in the world. Give us these top fields and let those Broncos buck. Tommy Fleetwood being number 15 in the power rankings this week gives us all we need to know, and that’s that the big boys came to play.
As for the course, Bay Hill is a tough one. It’s a par 72 that can measure up to 7,466 yards and can get windyyyy. According to Intern Allen, our boots on the ground weather guy in Florida, we can expect strong winds on thursday and friday possibly reaching up to 35 mph. We better load some of these little guys pockets up with bricks or they might go away, seriously though Allen toss an extra brick in the backpack we get worried at Loon HQ. The greens are Bermuda grass and are larger than average in size to make up for the fact that the course is one of the longer on tour and the rough is around 3 inches high. Enough to cause even the best iron players problems if they miss the fairway. Due to all these factors when picking guys it was key to take into account how they play in the wind, their strength off of the tee, and their ability to capitalize on second shots approaching the green. On top of that course history seems to be very strong here at Bay Hill, making it a tough task for bettors to choose the hot hand or a seasoned vet. As for our picks feel free to openly fade Beast as he is now down 9.4 units on the season. Or look at it this way… he can’t just keep losing right?
Top 20:
Magz: Tommy Fleetwood +200
There is one main reason that I am picking Tommy Fleetwood to make it into the top 20 this week and that is that it is going to be WINDY. Tommy is known for grinding it out and playing well in windy conditions. Fleetwood also finished T20 last year and is 5 for 6 on making the cut at this event. What a bloke.
Beast: Keith Mitchell +180
If you follow the Loon, you know we’re Keith Mitchell Stans. I personally bet on Keith a lot last year and I’m hopping right back on that train this week. Keith has been absolutely lights to start 2023, with big time finishes in big time events. He likes Bay Hill and has a strong history at the API. After his big week at the Genesis, I told Loon Magz that Keith will win again very soon (I’m sprinkling his outright odds +5500). If his game keeps firing on all cylinders, he should have yet another big finish this week.
Top 10:
Magz: Tyrell Hatton +280
I’m beginning to get very nervous that I may be becoming a Tyrell Hatton fan. For whatever reason I am constantly convincing myself that he is the guy this week. But this week it is true. Tyrell plays great in the wind just like Fleetwood and is a fellow Englishman. He also currently ranks 13th in SG off the tee which could be huge this week. I am pumped to watch him be an absolute gremlin on the golf course at Bay Hill.
Beast: Jason Day +200
I’ll preface my reasoning by saying I AM NOT A JASON DAY FAN. I don’t know what it is, I just have never actively rooted for him. But as a degenerate golf fan, I can’t deny what he’s been doing so far this season. We’ve seen the former world #1 essentially rise from the PGA tour graveyard. We know he has what it takes to win at the API and he seems to be back to his former self. This is probably an extremely trendy pick, but I don’t care. Lock it up, +200.
Matchups:
Magz: Sepp Straka to beat Harris English -129
Call me a Sepp Straka fan all you want, but the fact of the matter here is that Harris English has missed the cut in 3 of his last 4 events. There is absolutely no way that this bet should even be allowed. Sepp is a strong player that ranks 19th in SG approaching the green. Harris meanwhile ranks 129th. Come on.
Beast: Will Zalatoris to beat Cameron Young -120
Willy Z is seemingly back to his old form, striking the ball as well as anyone at the Genesis a couple weeks back. He thrives on US Open style set ups that are long and tough, Bay Hill is sure to be just that. If he can make a few putts, he will be in contention Sunday. As for Cam Young, aside from his 2nd place finish abroad, he’s had a relatively quiet year. There’s no doubt in my mind he’ll get that first win soon, however I don’t think it’ll be on this stage with this field.
Outright Winners:
Magz: Rory McIlroy +900
I understand that my reasoning is a bit of a repeating record at this point, but Rory is another guy that plays great in the wind! I really believe that the strong gusts could drastically affect the play of these guys and I don’t want to be stuck with someone that does not have the stomach for it. Let’s go get one Rory. Let those LIV guys know. On an unrelated note I strongly encourage people to bet on Jason Day, you have no idea how much Loon Beast hates him and I have no idea how him betting him top 10 is going to go but I am planning on being part of that party.
Beast: Justin Thomas +2000
In these elevated events, we’re looking for incredible golfers who have longer odds than normal. Jon Rahm is the odds on favorite this week at +650. In my eyes, those are garbage odds for a guy who doesn’t even like this Florida swing.
I’m a JT guy, and anytime I see him at 20-1 or better, I have to bet it (if you’re smart you’ll fade me). I think oddsmakers are sleeping on him this week partially due to his slow start this year but also his lack of tournament history at the API. We’ve seen JT in the winners circle plenty of times before in big events. Once everything clicks again, he’s going to win more golf tournaments. I can already picture JT tossing on that red cardigan.
Records YTD:
Magz: -0.8 units, +3.6 units last week
Beast: -9.4 units, -1.4 units last week
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