A quick flashback to the past for the interesting story on how this tournament came to be. Since 1937, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (formerly known as the Crosby Clambake) has been a staple of the PGA tour. The Pro-Am tag dates back to the days of Bing Crosby, when he forked up $10,000 in prize money to get his Hollywood compadres to come play golf in San Diego. Kind of a legendary move.
The tournament is played on 3 different golf courses on the Monterey Peninsula and will be the final event of the season in which the course rotates by round. Spyglass Hill (par 72), Monterey Peninsula Country Club (par 71) and of course the historic Pebble Beach Golf Course (par 72) make up the 3 that both the Pros and Ams will be playing this week. The cut comes after 54 holes, the low 60 and ties will play the final round at Pebble Beach. The weather typically is far from great at this event. Often cold, windy or rainy; or even a combination of all 3. This time around the forecast looks alright, highs of about 60 degrees and windiest on Thursday, slight chances of rain throughout the tournament.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has a history of A-list celebrities teeing it up. This year is no different, here’s the list of celebs you’ll see on the course this week.
Recap:
Loon Magz brought home 0.4 units last week, with his top 10 pick Max Homa cashing as he went on to win the tournament. Maybe Beast can follow that up with a wining week of his own…
Max Homa took home last weeks Farmers Insurance Open trophy. Max (who was 5 back to start the day) fired a final round 6 under par to complete a big come from behind victory. Sam Ryder on the other hand played some fantastic golf, blowing out the field for the first 3 rounds. But as we’ve seen so many times before, it’s really, really hard to win on the PGA tour. Ryder ended up shooting a final round +3 to finish T-4. Honestly the better part of Sam Ryder’s weekend was wearing maroon joggers that triggered both Phil Mickelson and John Daly (fashion icons).
Another surprising thing that happened Sunday was with Jon Rahm. Rahm, who has been pretty much unstoppable to start the season, was two back and sitting in second place headed into the final round. Out of nowhere, Rahm just couldn’t find his stroke on Sunday and even ended up chunking a chip shot because of a stubborn acorn en route to a double bogey. He shot a two over 74 to finish T7. Is he a choker?
Back to Homa, not only did he win the Farmers on Saturday, but he got on a plane to phoenix and played in a skins game on Monday at a local municipal course (Papago, one of Loon Schimdt’s favorites). Slight difference in prize money, winning $400 for his round of 67 at Papago and $1.5 million for his 4 rounds at Torrey Pines. Guess he’s gotta pay for those diapers somehow.
Honestly, the field this week is weak. We’ve got a few big names in Speith, Hovland, Fitzpatrick and of course Loon favorite and defending champion Tom Hoge. Don’t get it twisted, this should still be a great weekend for watching golf. The shorter courses and natural landing areas typically allow for the shorter hitters on tour to succeed at the AT&T.
Last year, Tom Hoge and Jordan Speith battled it out in the final round. This was the huge breakthrough tournament Hoge had been waiting for. Also it’s an insanely cool way to get your first win, to straight up beat one of the best golfers on the planet by 2 in the final round at Pebble Beach.
Hoge was +5000 to win and in case you forgot, the Loon cashed that ticket. The Loon knows.
This time around, the defending champion is +2000. His game has been extremely sharp to start the year and I see no reason the lights would be too bright for the vet.
The favorite this week is Jordan Speith at 9-1 odds. This should come as no surprise, in 10 previous appearances he’s made the cut each time. He won this event in 2017, had a T3 finish in 2021 and a solo 2nd in 2022. Not to mention a handful of other top 10s. Speith dominates Pebble Beach and will no doubt be a popular pick in DFS and as an outright winner, however his ball striking really hasn’t been great lately which is worrisome to me.
Not far behind Speith in Vegas is Matthew Fitzpatrick. Fitzy finished T12 in the US Open in 2019 and T6 last year. His game translates well at Pebble and he’s a guarantee to be sharp this week.
A few other names that pop off the field list are Viktor Hovland, Justin Rose and Mav McNealy. Each have great history at Pebble Beach and have their game’s fine tuned heading into the week. Let’s get into the picks.
The Picks:
Top 20:
Magz: Russell Knox +290
Russell has three top 15s at this tournament since 2018 and has made 9 of 10 cuts this season. The man ranks 6th in strokes gained approaching the green on tour. On short courses where that stat matters even more, I’ll look to a guy like Russell.
Magz: Maverick McNealy -130
I took Mav in this spot last week and it looked awesome until he choked it away on Sunday. It was devastating, thankfully Max Homa saved my week betting wise. But I’m a guy who believes in second chances so I’m playing Maverick top 20 again as a sort of peace offering since he has such good tournament history.
Beast: Jordan Speith -135
Talk about a chalk pick. Back to back weeks I’m taking a guy with -120 or worse odds for top 20. Don’t care. I already gave my two cents on Speith. Lock it up boys.
Top 10:
Magz: Matthew Fitzpatrick +110
I think I might be a little bit of a Fitz fan at this point. I could go with Spieth or Hovland here but Fitz is just so steady with his swing and hits so many GIR that I have to go with him. We’re here to secure units.
Beast: Seamus Power +200
Skip down to Magz’s winner pick. I second what he says but don’t have the stones to pick Seamus outright.
Matchup:
Beast: Beau Hossler to beat Kurt Kitayama -125
For those who have followed for a while, you know the Loon hates Beau Hossler. But when you’re on a cold streak, you gotta switch something up. I’m not rooting for Beau to win the tournament, but he should be able to handle Kurt Kitayama (who has a missed cut and a T-73 in his two starts in 2023) no problem this week. Beau finished 3rd last year at this event. Mark my words, if this bet loses I will never bet another coin on Beau Hossler.
Outright Winner:
Magz: Seamus Power +2200
For those who do not remember. Old Seamus blew a 5 stroke lead after 36 holes last year. This year he’s got it, he is a top tier wedge player and is back to prove himself. Also a slight luck of the irish play.
Beast: Viktor Hovland +1200
There’s something about Viktor Hovland and Pebble Beach. The course itself doesn’t seem like the ideal fit for Vik, yet he always thrives when he plays it. He won the 2018 US Am and finished 12th at the US Open in 2019, both played at Pebble. With an improved short game, I expect Hovland to be in contention come Sunday.
2023 Records YTD:
Magz: -0.8 units
Beast: -3.5 units
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