American Express Open Recap:
Accountability. That’s what the Loon is built upon. And to our readers, please, please hold us accountable for our performance last week. No blog. Picks were last minute and not a single live tweet! Not even a mention of Tom Kim or little Brian Harman. I was out of the country for the week on vacation and apparently Magz went on a sabbatical himself. Nonetheless, both Magz and I went 1 for 3 on bets, losing exactly 1 unit a piece. I’m choosing to take this as a positive, both of us had to clear our minds and get humbled by a couple leaderboards to really buckle in and get after it.
The American Express was yet another birdie barrage with Jon Rahm & rookie Davis Thompson leading the way. It was truly a gusty performance from Thompson considering the intimidation factor he had to have felt with Jon Rahm breathing down his neck. Thompson had pretty much the best start you can possibly have to a tournament, firing a -8 on the front nine Thursday, with two eagles on the back to back par 5s! Guy was blistering hot. The rookie continued making birdies and actually a few more eagles too, leading the field for the majority of the tournament.
That is until the par 5 16th on Sunday, where the Spaniard snagged a one stroke lead with a birdie and he didn’t look back. Rahm once again raised the trophy on Sunday evening, his fourth victory in his last six starts. Going into the final round, Rahm was a stroke back but honestly it really felt like he had already won. In my mind with the way we watched Rahm win just a few weeks ago, there was absolutely no way Davis Thompson stood a chance. Props to Thompson, he never gave up and stood up to the man for the entirety of the round.
The Big Hairy Winning Machine:
Before we preview The Farmers Insurance Open, let’s take a minute to appreciate what Jon Rahm is doing. Like I mentioned previously, Rahm is on an absolute tear and nobody is better than he is right now. In his last 6 starts he has 2 top 10s and 4 wins. Guy is just raking in the trophies, not to mention the millions of dollars in prize money. He’s 68 under par in his 12 competitive rounds this year so far. SIXTY EIGHT UNDER PAR IN TWELVE ROUNDS. That’s a scoring average of 66.3 strokes per round. Insane. At this point I don’t think it’s out of the question to say that without injury, Jon Rahm might win every event he plays in for the rest of the season. He’s that dialed. If Rahm wins again a new segment will be happening at Loon HQ, a sort of I Hate Spain segment if you will.
The Farmers Insurance Open Preview:
What comes to mind when you think of Torrey Pines? California? Tiger Woods? Major Golf Championships? Fair answers but they’re all wrong. One name comes to mind for the Loon and that is Luke List. Quick flashback to last season at this event, myself and Magz had the best Sunday of our golf betting careers. Here we were, having a few casual Saturday Bud Lights when all of a sudden, Luke List fires a final round 6 under to tie Will Zalatoris. They head to a playoff, we both have tickets on BOTH golfers in the playoff to win outright. Of course we’re rooting for Luke List at that point, he was +12500 for the tournament!! Why we bet this, I’m not sure. But in the end, IT WAS ALWAYS LUKE LIST. (One day my grandkids will ask how I got that custom red Ferrari in the garage and I’ll humbly tell them that there was once a man named Luke List who won The Farmer’s Insurance Open)
This is not a traditional event and it has to feel weird for these players. It’s played Wednesday to Saturday on two different courses. As a viewer, I love it. I get to watch more golf when I’m supposed to be working during the week and I get to watch the conference championship NFL games on Sunday without sweating my golf bets on the other screen.
The event is played as follows:
For the first two rounds, one round will be played on the Torrey South course and one round will be played on the much easier, Torrey North course. The two rounds post-cut will each be played on the South course. Torrey South is the longest course on tour, playing 7,765 yards from the tips (Torrey North is 7,258yards).
This should come as no surprise, but Jon Rahm is the clear favorite. He has just 4.5 to 1 odds to win. I can’t even comprehend those odds, he’s +450 with a pretty strong field.
As a golf bettor, there’s clearly little to no value in Rahm as an outright winner, so we’re going to focus on the field and hope somebody can derail the Jon Rahm train.
A few other notable finishes from last year:
Luke List: First.
Jason Day T-3: Always plays well at the Farmers. Day is on basically everyone’s radar this week. He’s +2500 to win.
Sungjae Im T-6: Sungjae keeps improving at the Farmers. He might be due to win at Torrey Pines. This information may be held away from Magz as he has repeatedly bet Sungjae despite placing a “no bet policy” on him over a year ago.
Taylor Montgomery T-11: This was his breakout tournament, I look forward to seeing him contend again this week. It’s early, but I think he’s this year’s Cam Young or Willy Z. It’s only a matter of time before he wins.
Si Woo Kim T-11, Billy Horschel T-11, Scottie Scheffler T-20, Cam Young T-20, Justin Thomas T-20 & Sahith Theegala T-25.
The Bets:
Top 20’s:
Magz: Maverick McNealy +130
Here we go. Maverick has been absolutely stellar so far this year with a T7 and T10 in his last two events. Not to mention ranking 3rd on tour in strokes gained putting. His driving scares me, as he can turn into a bit of a tornado off the tee, but I am confident his current form will hold it together.
Beast: Sungjae Im -125
Sungjae has finished in the top 20 in 3 of his last 4 events (I’ve erased his missed cut at the Sony from my memory). He finished 6th at this event last season and nobody would be surprised if he won this time around. This seems like free money to me. With that being said, tail at your own risk.
Top 10’s:
Magz: Max Homa +190
Max may have missed the cut last year but his form has truly changed over the past year. He has turned into much more of a killer and the type of guy that brings his A game to the big events. With this being the biggest event so far this season, let’s watch the Cali boy get some birdies.
Beast: Will Zalatoris +170
With Willy Z coming off injury to start the year, I was hesitant to bet him. However, he came out firing and showed very minimal rust in Hawaii so I’m back on the horse. I held a Zalatoris outright ticket at the Farmer’s last year and he lost in a playoff. Torrey Pines fits the strengths of his game and I think he will be in contention once again. I will also be dabbling with his outright odds.
Outright Winners:
Magz: Will Zalatoris +1600
As I’m typing this I can feel it in my bones that Sungjae Im is going to win this golf tournament. But, Sungjae and I have reached a fork in the road and must part ways. For that reason I’m going with a man that is perfectly prepared to follow up last year’s playoff loss with a revenge win. Let’s ride Willy.
Beast: Tony Finau +1200
Finau is one of the longest hitters on the planet and is just about as hot as anyone in golf right now (besides Rahm). His course history is outstanding, including a T-2 just a couple years ago. This is the exact definition of a “horse for the course”. Finau finally figured out how to close out a golf tournament last year, so this time at Torrey will be a different story.
Loon Golf Records:
(as of 01/24/23)
Magz: -1.2 units YTD
Beast: -3 units YTD
loonstatesports.com 