After a free agency saga as long and boring as War and Peace, the Twins star shortstop is returning to Minnesota, signing a six-year contract for $200 million noontime today.
Before we dive into the details of the deal and what it means for the Twins, how did we get here? Correa’s first deal with the Giants was for 13 years and $350 million, and that fizzled out because of a mysterious issue with his medical evaluation. Twins fans groaned in anguish. Hearing that, the Mets then fired $315 million over 12 years at him, before making sure they were okay with his medical situation. Twins fans tore their clothes. Then came the boring “are the Mets cool with his medical or not” stalemate that eventually led Correa and agent Scott Boras to pivot away from the New York club. Despite all the confusion of the past few weeks, at no point did it seem like Correa would return to the Twins until late last night, when some of my sources expressed some lean in that direction. Yet, here we are, and Twins fans can now rejoice.
The Deal
Because of the troubles with his medical situation, the Twins were able to sign Correa to a pretty rare deal for a player of his stature. Big free agents like Correa usually sign for 10 plus years and for around $300 million. This forces teams to make a huge commitment and pay these players superstar money far after their primes when they’re no longer playing at a superstar level. The Twins will be paying their star more AAV for these six years than they would have over the 10 years $285 million deal they started with, but they will only be paying for his prime when he’ll be worth that money.
Also, there are no opt-outs, so there will be no questions about him leaving every winter. He’s here for six years. IF there are no actual issues with the ankle that has caused this whole debacle, this deal should return a ton of value for the Twins. There is a vesting option (whatever that means) that could allow the deal to rise to $270 million. I assume the extra money is tied to good performance, in which case the Twins will be happy to pay and Twins fans will be happy to watch them pay it.
The Team
Whether the team is actually going to be good this year is another question entirely. Correa signing turns what was a terrible offseason into a great one, but there’s more work to do. They could really use another arm in both the bullpen and rotation, but there’s not that many guys left out there. They will likely explore the trade market and Max Kepler seems especially likely to move, though that wouldn’t be for the type of arm the Twins need. This may mean that a guy like Luis Arraez is on the market, though that wouldn’t be a popular move. Outfield depth is also a problem, albeit one that is easier to fix with a prospect or fringe major league type player. With those holes plugged, a team with healthy seasons from Correa and Buxton (which likely won’t happen if we’re honest) can be very good.
Long Term
My concern before this deal came to being was that Byron Buxton’s prime years would be wasted with a pitching staff that wasn’t that good and a supporting cast of hitters that are too young. Correa coming back creates a leading duo that raises the competitiveness of the team while they figure out which of the club’s young players will have a spot in the lineup for years to come. Long-term health has been a concern for Buxton and it now seems that it may be for Correa as well, but if the Twins can string together a couple healthy years—or even healthy postseasons—for both of them, this team can grow into a serious contender as the younger pieces continue to grow. Above all, this signing gives the Twins a sense of direction, which was noticeably missing through the first months of this offseason.
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