Last week, by many standards dawned the start of a new golf season. Though it was a bit of a hit and giggle, the best players from around the world descended upon Kapalua to wear untucked shirts, drink mai-tais, and make an astonoshing amount of birdies. This week many of those players have left the island of Hawaii leaving only the true tough guys to handle another week in the sun at The Sony Open. A tournament where there is actually a cut line and where 8 of the last 9 winners played at The Sentry the previous week.
In terms of the course, Waialae Country Club is extremely flat with only 10 feet of elevation change throughout. It is also fairly short, measuring in at only 7,125 yards and playing at a par 70. Players will again be able to take advantage of this course though in a different way than last week. Successful golfers will keep it in the fairway and be precise with their approach shots, avoiding difficult runoffs and undulation on the fast Bermuda greens. Strategy and strokes gained approaching the green will be key this week.
With this being said we need to look for golfers that are willing to attack pins, as well as guys that can get (extremely) hot with their putter. At a course like this everyone is going to have chances and the difference maker will be who can convert those chances into the many birdies needed to win. Let’s get into the picks and prepare for another week of taking in the ocean views and sunshine while we hunker down in our snow forts and stack cash.
Official Picks:
Top 20:
Loon Magz: Keith Mitchell +140
Keith has 4 top 25s in his last 5 starts here. This course is weird for Keith considering his main talent is driving the ball straight and far and that is not quite as much of a premium here. Still, he has played well so far this season and I’ll trust his course history.
Loon Beast: MacKenzie Hughes +230 & Christiaan Bezuidenhout +190
I’m going to double dip here with two Top 20 picks for this week. The first and at slightly longer odds is MacKenzie Hughes.
Hughes came out firing at the TOC last week, but didn’t have it on Friday & Saturday. The longer Plantation course and the big dawg (driver) held him back. Nonetheless, Waialae should be a great fit for Hughes this week. The course is short and rewards players with great short games. Hughes last played this event in 2021 and finished T-19. If it becomes a putting contest, MacKenzie Hughes can compete with anyone in the field. There’s some great value here for a Top 20 finish.
My second Top 20 finisher is Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +190. Although he didn’t play at the Sentry last week, I’m confident that Waialae is a great fit for Christiaan’s game. Finishing T-17 last year, he comes into the 2023 Sony Open in solid form. He finished 6th in strokes gained putting on the tour in 2022. Bezuidenhout’s fantastic short game will be on display all week, two units top 20 lock it up.
Top 10:
Loon Magz: Tom Kim +130
This is a whale play. This course fits Tom Kim unbelievably well. The kid will not be stopped so far in golf tournaments no matter how little he knows about the course. I do not see any way he doesn’t go out and go low this week. The course calls for players to go out and attack pins, with strong iron play and good putting… come on! That’s Tom Kim in a nutshell. Apparently Beast agrees with me.
Loon Beast: Tom Kim +130
All aboard the Tom Kim train!! Coming off a T-5 finish at the TOC last week, Waialae should once again be a great fit for his game. He’s the favorite to win this week, however players making their debut at The Sony pretty much never win. There’s no doubt in my mind that Tom Kim will be in contention come Sunday, but I’ll play it safe. Give me the Top 10 at plus money.
Matchup:
Loon Magz: Tom Hoge to beat Billy Horschel -135
The only reason this play is even an option is due to Tom Hoge not having a great course history here. I am choosing to overlook that due to his T3 last week and the fact that he leads the tour in strokes gained approaching the green. Not to mention murmors that Billy almost decided to skip this tournament! Take the guy who wants to be there more.
Loon Beast: K.H. Lee to beat Si Woo Kim -128
Based on his Vegas odds of +3300 to win the tournament, it seems as if K.H Lee is flying under the radar this week. He already has 3 Top 10s this season, including a T-7 finish at the TOC with a loaded field. I should also mention that his approach game ranks as one of the best in the field this week and that is a key factor in success at Waialae. I’m riding the hot hand here and won’t be surprised to see Lee back in the Top 10.
Si Woo Kim on the other hand has slightly longer outright odds of +3700, however that’s not why I’m fading him. Si Woo hasn’t played competitive golf since the Houston Open in November and he hasn’t exactly been locked in on on his game as of late. Si Woo tied the knot in December and although I don’t have the exact stats, trust me, there’s some sort of correlation with golfers who just got married and playing bad in their first event back. There’s a hangover effect.
Outright Winner:
Loon Magz: Corey Conners +2200
Corey seems to love this course. Finishing in the top 15 in his last 3 starts here, including an 11th place finish last year. His stats aren’t overwhelming so far this season but he is the type of player that needs to strike when the field is a little weaker. Also anyone who follows the Loon knows how hard it is for me to take this guy. Corey loves to get my hopes up and let me down. Not this week.
Loon Beast: Tom Hoge +2500
Tom Hoge finished T-3 last week against the best of the best, with a blistering final round of 9 under. He proceeded to hop on a plane Monday morning and fly from Hawaii to LA to watch his TCU Horned Frogs in the CFP National Championship, only to fly right back to Hawaii on Tuesday to prepare for The Sony Open. Although TCU got thumped, I’m confident the jaunt to LA won’t hurt Hoge’s game this week. I’m not looking into Hoge’s tournament history much either (5 missed cuts, a T-12 and a solo 3rd finish in 2018), but I am trusting Hoge saying himself that he loves Wailae. One thing is for sure, when Hoge is hot, he’s HOT and that’s enough for me to lay a unit on him this week.
YTD PGA Unit Count:
Loon Magz: +0.3U
Loon Beast: +1.5U
loonstatesports.com 