The race to the FedEx Cup technically kicked off last September with the Fortinet Championship in Napa, California. Where Max Homa took home 500 FedEx Cup points along with a cool $1.4 million. In fact, 11 FedEx Cup events have already been played for the 2022-23 season. Cannot say I know anybody that has been in attendance at these events but they have allegedly been taking place. The PGA tour is most definitely overshadowed by football in the fall, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t great golf being played. Some players use this time in the fall for a vacation, others use this time to dial in their game, and some use this time to win events with limited fields.
So yes, technically speaking the Fortinet Championship is the start of the season, however many tour players and golf fans around the world consider this week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions to be the real kick off to the 2023 season. After the New Year, players tend to start amping up their playing schedules and fans start to flip to the golf channel much more frequently. Personally, living in the Midwest where the temperature hasn’t been above freezing in weeks, it’s now that time of year for me where I really get that itch for golf.
It’s also the time of year where the Loon Boys get responsible. We just made money betting on college football and we need a place to invest it. A safe place. Which is why we turn our full attention to golf, and giving all of you guys winners every week. Let’s get into it.
Official Picks:
Top 10:
Loon Magz: Tom Kim +180
A name we will all be hearing a lot this year. I’m all over Tom Kim and the recent news of him putting together a strong team around him show that he is here to win. Behind that young face and big smile is a man that will break out the killer instinct and win golf tournaments. Easy top 10 here.
Loon Beast: Collin Morikawa +125
Morikawa has 3 appearances at Kapalua, he’s never finished worse than 7th. These greens are huge, which sets Collin up for success as he’s one of the best ball strikers in the world. If he can get that putter to come around, he could win outright. Plus money for a top 10 finish? Lock it up.
Matchup:
Loon Magz: JT to beat Tony Finau -140
I hate this bet. Despise it. But JT loves this event and has won it before. Meanwhile Tony has not finished higher than T-15. Love Tony, but I am not sure this matchup should even be an option.
Loon Beast: John Rahm to beat Scottie Scheffler -125
John Rahm is the heavy favorite to win this week at just +650 odds. This should come as no surprise to anyone who follows golf. He was runner up at this event last year and is once again in fantastic form this time around. He’s won this event twice previously and very well could win a third time. His outright odds have little value, so give me his matchup with Scottie Scheffler at -125. Nothing against Scottie, but I don’t think he can beat Rahm at Kapalua.
Outright Winner:
Loon Magz: Patrick Cantlay +1000
Feels like a very on brand tournament for Patrick Cantlay to win. Tremendous field but at the same time is it a real tournament? Would love to see Patrick go scary low here, taking advantage of the massive greens and small field.
Loon Beast: Justin Thomas +1000
JT is an extremely good golfer, particularly when he’s playing in Hawaii. At Kapalua, he’s finished T22, T5, has a pair of 3rd place finishes and two wins since 2017. JT is coming off a top 5 finish at the Hero World Challenge and has as much experience at the Plantation Course as anyone, I like him to take home the trophy for a 3rd time.
Extra Plays from Beast (not for our official 2023 records):
I’ll be playing Sungjae Im outright at +1800. He’s finished in the Top 10 each of the last two years and is coming off 3 runner up finishes last season. He’s due for another win, why not this week?
If you’re looking for a long shot winner, I have a pick for you. Billy Horschel to win, +5000. I know you’re thinking “but Billy doesn’t play well at Kapalua”, so what. Billy is coming off of one of his best seasons on tour where he won against a fantastic field at the Memorial. Although it’s unlikely, Billy Ho is a competitor and I might place a little sprinkle on him this week.
With such a small field, bettors will struggle to find value in their plays. One spot that caught my eye was Xander Schauffele to finish in the Top 5 (+210). Schauffele has won this event before, had 3 wins last season and he can go as low as anyone. He should perform well, I’ll take a stab at +210.
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