Previewing The Players Championship
Twenty. Million. Dollars. That’s the amount of the purse at The Players this week. It is set to be the largest amount of money a golf tournament has ever been played for (according to our intern, 50/50 shot he’s right). In comparison, The Masters is set to have a $15 million purse. The Players is called the fifth major for a variety of reasons and the amount of money being played for is definitely one of them. Another one is the golf course. The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is a great track built not just with great golf in mind but also for the fans. For you and me, that would fire a 103 here complete with 12 balls in the water and 13 beers drank. This course was built so that the fans would easily be able to watch great golf being played and it does it magnificently, using mounds, designed holes, and a course that revolves smoothly around the clubhouse. The fifth major is no joke and we at Loon HQ have been absolutely drowning in the models getting picks ready for you guys. As you watch this week, take note of where the fans are sitting and how great of views are shown from the fans point of view at this tournament.
Recapping last week, it was a win for the blog taking home 2.25 units at Bay Hill! This was done in great service to myself, losing one unit on the week. Left it all out on Arnie’s course so that you guys could secure units. Honestly I deployed more than I care to share and I plan on doing the same this week. For the blog we had Matthew Fitzpatrick top 10 hit at +250, Fitzy fit the course great and honestly could have easily finished better than T9. We also secured Chris Kirk top 20 at +225, absolutely love to see the model hitting on Kirk who finished T5. Losing picks included Hoge over Young which was close even though Hoge played like LoonBeast on day 1 (Beast gave this pick by the way not pointing fingers). Zalatoris couldn’t quite squeeze out a top 10 finishing T38 with a horrible Sunday and Kokrak really just didn’t play well, too busy having zoom meetings with Saudi Arabia and not enough time practicing apparently (disavow). Overall I am just glad the blog could get back on track and with the way this course looks, I’m expecting units again.
Loon (Golf): Up 2.25 units last week, down 1.9 units on the season
Magz (Golf): Down 1 unit last week, up 40.25 units on the season
The Course: TPC Sawgrass is a par 72 playing to 7,256 yards. It requires players to move the ball both directions as many holes either dogleg left or right. The greens are bermuda grass and tend to play fast even though the course overall—especially in March—plays less firm and fast than the other majors (not a major but $20 million, let it slide please). All in all it is a strong execution test and includes 48 of the 50 best players in the world. The field is awesome and the course will test them, requiring them to avoid trees, stay out of well placed water and lakes, and make sure that the best player comes out on top. Furthermore, the weather looks like it’ll be windy, possibly even stormy into Saturday so we will see what players can play through adversity and nail a shot on the island green at 17 with 20 mph winds blowing.
This week is special and in honor of this being the “fifth” major. We’ve got 5 Loon Picks for you, three personal picks from Magz, and 3 more picks from fellow golf degenerate LoonBeast. Worst record on the week has to shotgun the nearest Busch Light. Time to secure beer money.
Loon Picks:
Top 20 – Matthew Fitzpatrick +170. Fitzpatrick fits the bill to play very well at The Players. The Englishman finished T9 in 2021, ranks second in strokes gained on tour, and can play through tough weather. Could definitely finish higher but the top 20 is a great bet.
Top 20 – Talor Gooch +230. Coming off a T7 at Bay Hill in which the last day was an absolute battle, the model loves Gooch this week. He ranks 14th in strokes gained tee to green and finished T5 here in 2021. He’ll be up there.
Top 10 – Cameron Smith +325. Smith is another guy that does all the right things for this type of tournament. He can score on par 5s, he’s a strong ball striker, and has course experience with a T17 finish in 2021. Overall, Cameron Smith is a dog I’m willing to take in any golf match and with these odds I can’t pass up on this bet.
Winner – Collin Morikawa +1200. I’m aware that this guy is the favorite and that this pick doesn’t have that much value. The fact is I do not care, Morikawa can absolutely tear apart a course like this in soft conditions with his approach ability and we are all well aware that he can show up in big spots. Love him this week.
Matchup – Kirk over Henley EV. Honestly I think Henley could have a good week but I have to take Chris Kirk in this matchup. Kirk has gone 4 for 4 in his last 4 tries at TPC Sawgrass and is fresh off T7 and T5 finishes.
Magz Picks (Locks):
Top 20 – Adam Scott +200. Heading into windy conditions why not go with one of the best swings on tour. Can’t wait to watch Scott ease through this course in the same tan sweater for four rounds. Putting on an absolute ball striking clinic to finish in 12th.
Top 10 – Daniel Berger +300. Finishing T9 last year, Berger also ranks 3rd in par 4 scoring and is a strong ball striker I can trust in the wind. He can hit solid stingers (yessir) off the tee or a reliable fade that will find the fairway, setting himself up for plenty of success (and vibes) at TPC Sawgrass.
Matchup – Billy Horschel over Spieth -135. Absolutely love this matchup, Spieth struggles at this course missing 4 cuts since 2014. On the other side, Billy is riding multiple weeks of great iron play and is just waiting to break through for a really high finish.
LoonBeast Picks:
Top 20: Taylor Gooch +230
As mentioned previously, Gooch man finished T5 in 2021 at this event. He’s been playing great golf as of late with 2 top 20s and a top 10. Gooch has been striking the ball well and I think that he’ll keep that momentum going at The Players. We’re going to go ahead and forget about his round this past Sunday, that was a fluke.
Top 10: Will Zalatoris +500
I don’t understand why vegas isn’t putting more respect on Willy Z’s name this week. He’s one of the best ball strikers on tour and plays just like last year’s winner, Justin Thomas. It could be due to that god awful putting stroke, however I’m going to ignore that. Zalatoris finished in 21st at The Players last year and has two top 10s in his last 5 starts. Sure he’s young, but that doesn’t mean he won’t go low. I think top 10 is worth a unit and I will be sprinkling on his outright odds as well.
Outright: Victor Hovland +1800
Does this pick even need an explanation? Hovland is one of the hottest golfers on the planet right now. 1 win and 3 top 5s in his last 5, including what some might call a choke job last week at the API. The biggest red flag with this pick is that Victor missed the cut here last season, but given the way he’s playing I haven’t even thought about that happening this time around. I’m locking this one in and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if/when he gets the job done on Sunday.
Now we go.
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